A leading climate scientist has called for a moratorium on airport expansion in the UK if the government wishes to meet its ambitious target of cutting CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050.
Kevin Anderson, a climate scientist at the University of Manchester's Tyndall Centre, said that technological developments in the aviation industry would not be forthcoming in time to offset the projected growth in the demand for air travel, and suggested that the only practical solution to the problem is to cap the number of flights.
Anderson and his colleague, Alice Bows, modeled the likely course of CO2 related aviation emissions, accounting for: different industry growth scenarios, the inclusion of aviation in the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS), and the potential for new technologies to make planes more efficient.
Their report concluded: "Whilst technology undoubtedly has an important medium and long-term role to play in reducing the carbon intensity of aviation, it is negligent and irresponsible not to engage with the sector's short-term emissions growth. The urgency with which the industry must make the transition to a low-carbon pathway leaves no option, but to instigate a radical and immediate programme of demand management."
The report's warnings come as the transport secretary, Geoff Hoon, considers his decision on the expansion of Heathrow airport (due next month), which would result in a new runway by 2030 and a 45% increase in the number of flights.
Last month the climate secretary, Ed Miliband, announced that aviation - which currently accounts for around 7% of UK CO2 emissions - will be included in the EU ETS. In principle, this means that the industry will be held financial accountability for its CO2 emissions, which in turn will help to provide capital for investment in CO2 reductions in other sectors.
Anderson, however, argues that allowing the aviation industry to buy carbon credits will not be enough to reduce emissions. "We delude ourselves if our aspirations… reside substantially in the current framing of the EU emissions trading scheme and the practices that [it] may engender." he said.
According to the report, if the aviation industry continues to grow at its current rate of 7% a year, by 2030 it could account for two-thirds of all UK emissions - severely jeopardising efforts to meet reduction targets.
To keep the country's overall emissions cuts on track, other sectors such as energy and transport would have to make deep cuts. Unfortnately, he said, no other sector has yet demonstrated that it can make overall CO2 reductions, never mind the significant drops required to offset aviation.
That the government is now left with little option is clear. "There should be a complete moratorium on airport expansion prior to including aviation in the emissions trading scheme." said Anderson.
Friends of the Earth's aviation campaigner, Richard Dyer said: "The government has put the interests of the aviation industry ahead of the environment for far too long – but ministers cannot continue to ignore the warnings from climate change experts.
"Aviation is one of the UK's fastest growing sources of carbon dioxide… Ministers must urgently review the UK's aviation strategy, scrap their reckless airport expansion plans and invest in alternatives to short-haul flights, such as faster rail travel."
Meanwhile, London's Mayor, Boris Johnson, has pledged an initial £15,000 towards the cost of mounting a legal challenge if Labour moves ahead with it's expansion plans.
The Guardian, The Guardian (Boris Johnson)
